Food Security

In this module your main task is to plan and carry out a set of activities with selected households in the community to help them gain a good understanding of their current and possible future use of natural resources in their area.

This study uses an economy-wide, dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model to analyze the ability of growth in various agricultural subsectors to accelerate overall economic growth and reduce poverty in Nigeria over the next years (2009-17). In addition, econometric methods are used to assess growth requirements in agricultural public spending and the relationship between public services and farmers? use of modern technology. The DCGE model results show that if certain agricultural subsectors can reach the growth targets set by the Nigerian government, the country will see 9.5 percent annual growth in agriculture and 8.0 percent growth of GDP over the next years. The national poverty rate will fall to 30.8 percent by 2017, more than halving the 1996 poverty rate of 65.6 percent and thereby accomplishing the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG1). This report emphasizes that in designing an agricultural strategy and prioritizing growth, it is important to consider the following four factors at the subsectoral level: (i) the size of a given subsector in the economy; (ii) the growth-multiplier effects occurring through linkages of the subsector with the rest of the economy; (iii) the subsector-led poverty reduction-growth elasticity; and (iv) the market opportunities and price effects for individual agricultural products.

In analyzing the public investments that would be required to support a 9.5 percent annual growth in agriculture, this study first estimates the growth elasticity of public investments using historical spending and agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) growth data. The results show that a 1 percent increase in agricultural spending is associated with a 0.24 percent annual increase in agricultural TFP. With such low elasticity, agricultural investments must grow at 23.8 percent annually to support a 9.5 percent increase in agriculture. However, if the spending efficiency can be improved by 70 percent, the required agricultural investment growth becomes 13.6 percent per year. The study also finds that investments outside agriculture benefit growth in the agricultural sector. Thus, assessments of required growth in agricultural spending should include the indirect effects of nonagricultural investments and emphasize the importance of improving the efficiency of agricultural investments. To further show that efficiency in agricultural spending is critically important to agricultural growth, this study utilizes household-level data to empirically show that access to agricultural services has a significantly positive effect on the use of modern agricultural inputs.

About 75 percent of the world's poor people live in rural areas, and most of them are involved in farming. Agricultural development in these areas is often constrained by issues of access to appropriate technologies; immense ?institutional weaknesses?; and deep problems with the organization and management of research, education, and extension systems. Many countries and agricultural systems thus remain mired in underdevelopment and face major barriers to the use of knowledge and innovation for development. Despite this, however, there are examples of organizational, technological, institutional, and policy innovations that are transforming agriculture and leading to growth and development. Important lessons can be learned and
scaled up from the successes that are occurring, as well as from examining cases that did not work.

Recent increases in cereals prices raise questions about agricultural priorities in Ghana. This report presents an application of the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) to the problem of identifying opportunities to enhance agriculture?s contribution to economic growth and poverty alleviation in the country. The PAM is a budget-based method that was applied to study the social and private profitability of six maize production systems and six rice production systems. The results indicate that all twelve of the systems contribute to national economic growth and private income generation among farmers, at least under the high cereals prices that prevailed in 2007. Maize systems show a higher rate of return (lower cost/benefit ratio) than rice systems. If prices returned to lower levels experienced in 2005, however, rice systems would be privately and socially unprofitable. Return to the still lower prices of 2002 would leave both the maize and rice systems unprofitable.

The PAM was also used to assess the impact of alternative interventions for increasing profitability in the face of lower output prices. The results suggest that higher adoption of input technologies could make maize profitable under a very wide range of prices. However, fertilizer prices are not likely to be the constraining factor input adoption as the price of fertilizer has little impact on farm profitability given current levels of fertilizer use. Rather, further research is needed to determine how to promote improved maize production technology. For rice systems there appears to be room to enhance profitability through post-farm interventions to reduce processing losses and to improve the quality of locally grown rice. Rice systems would be profitable under very low output prices if Ghana achieved the processing conversion rates and milled rice quality found in other countries.

Ethiopia's agricultural sector, which is dominated by smallscale, mixed-crop, and livestock farming, is the mainstay of the country?s economy. It constitutes more than half of the country's gross domestic product, generates more than 85 percent of foreign exchange earnings, and employs about 80 percent of the population. Unfortunately, Ethiopia's dependence on agriculture makes the country particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change on crop and livestock production. Thus, a deeper understanding of the complex interdependence between changing climatic conditions and Ethiopia's agricultural sector together with adaptation options is crucial.

Malawi has experienced modest economic growth over the last decade and a half. However, agricultural growth has been particularly erratic, and while the incidence of poverty has declined, it still remains high. The Malawian government, within the framework of the Agricultural Development Plan (ADP), is in the process of implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), which provides an integrated framework of development priorities aimed at restoring agricultural growth, rural development and food security. This paper analyzes agricultural growth and investment options that can support the development of a comprehensive agricultural development strategy consistent with the principles and objectives of the CAADP, which include achieving six percent agricultural growth and allocating at least ten percent of budgetary resources to the sector.

Economic modeling results indicate that it is possible for Malawi to reach the CAADP target of six percent agricultural growth. However, achievement of these goals will require additional growth in most crops and agricultural sub-sectors, meaning that Malawi cannot rely solely on growth in maize or tobacco to reach this growth target. Broader-based agricultural growth, including growth in pulses and horticultural crops, will be important if this target is to be achieved. So, too, is meeting the Maputo declaration of spending at least ten percent of the government?s total budget on agriculture. In fact, even under a more optimistic and efficient spending scenario, the Government of Malawi must increase its spending on agriculture in real value terms by about 20 percent per year between 2006 and 2015, and account for at least 24 percent of its total expenditure by 2015 if the CAADP goals are to be met.

Although agriculture has strong linkages to the rest of the economy, with agricultural growth typically resulting in substantial overall growth in the economy and rising incomes in rural and urban areas, simply achieving the CAADP target of six percent will not be sufficient to halve poverty by 2015, i.e. achieving the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG1). To achieve this more ambitious target, agriculture and non-agriculture would need an average annual growth rate above seven percent. This growth requirement is substantial, as is the associated resource requirements, indicating that the MDG target may be beyond reach. However, achieving the CAADP target should remain a priority, as this goal has more reasonable growth and expenditure requirements, and will substantially reduce the number of people living below the poverty line by 2015 and significantly improve the well-being of both rural and urban households.

Zambia has experienced strong economic performance since 1999. However, agriculture has not performed as well as the rest of the economy, and although the incidence of poverty has declined, it still remains high. The Zambian government, within the framework of the Fifth National Development Plan (FNDP), is in the process of implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), which provides an integrated framework of development priorities aimed at restoring agricultural growth, rural development and food security. This paper analyzes the agricultural growth and investment options that can support the development of a comprehensive rural development component under Zambia?s FNDP, in alignment with the principles and objectives of the CAADP, which include the achievement of six percent agricultural growth and allocation of at least ten percent of budgetary resources to the sector.

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model results indicate that it is possible for Zambia to reach the CAADP target of six percent agricultural growth, but this will require additional growth in all crops and sub-sectors. Zambia cannot rely on only maize or higher-value export crops to achieve this growth target; broader-based agricultural growth, including increases in fisheries and livestock, will be important. So, too, is meeting the Maputo declaration of spending at least ten percent of the government?s total budget on agriculture. In order to meet the CAADP target, the Government of Zambia must increase its spending on agriculture in real value terms by about 17?27 percent per year between 2006 and 2015, and spend about 8?18 percent of its total expenditure on the sector by 2015.

Although agriculture has strong linkages to the rest of the economy and its growth will result in substantial overall growth in the economy and the household incomes of rural and urban populations, achieving the CAADP target of six percent agricultural growth will not be sufficient to meet the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG1) of halving poverty by 2015. To achieve this more ambitious target, both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors would need an average annual growth rate of around ten percent per year. These growth requirements are substantial, as are the associated resource requirements. Thus, while the MDG1 target appears to be beyond reach for Zambia, achieving the CAADP target should remain a priority, as its more reasonable growth and expenditure scenarios will still substantially reduce the number of poor people living below the poverty line by 2015, and significantly improve the well-being of both rural and urban households.

This paper has been prepared in support of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) roundtable in Ghana. The study also takes a fresh perspective on the role of agriculture for development in light of the global food crisis. It addresses two main questions: what are the impacts of Green-revolution type agricultural growth to reach the CAADP goal in Ghana? Given the large investments required to achieve such productivity-led growth, what is the sector?s contribution to the overall economy? Results from the dynamic computable general equilibrium model suggest that by closing the existing yield gaps in crop production and supporting essential growth in the livestock sector Ghana can achieve CAADP?s 6 percent growth target. In this process, agriculture supports the rest of the economy through substantial and largely invisible monetary transfers to the nonagricultural sectors, which are primarily driven by the reduction of domestic food prices. Thus, CAADP growth benefits both rural and urban households, and reduces poverty by more than half within 10 years. However, widening regional disparities between the North and the rest of Ghana will increasingly pose a challenge for the development. Additional measures more targeted towards generating growth in the lagging North will be necessary to bridge the income gap and reach Ghana?s poorest of the poor.

World agriculture has entered a new, unsustainable, and politically risky period. Agriculture?and the natural resources it depends on?has been overexploited ecologically, has suffered from underinvestment, has recently been exposed to ill-designed bioenergy programs, and has been politically sidelined for too long. It is now at a critical point. Appropriate responses to the food and agriculture price and productivity crises are lacking. A global initiative for accelerated agriculture productivity is necessary now; such an initiative makes economic sense, is pro-poor and sustainable, and serves security. The initiative needs political leadership and coordination. There is no effective governance architecture at the global level and national levels to address the matter. Industrialized economies, including the United States, should substantially accelerate their investment in international agricultural research and development (R&D) in cooperation with new players.