Journal Articles

Malawi has experienced modest economic growth over the last decade and a half. However, agricultural growth has been particularly erratic, and while the incidence of poverty has declined, it still remains high. The Malawian government, within the framework of the Agricultural Development Plan (ADP), is in the process of implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), which provides an integrated framework of development priorities aimed at restoring agricultural growth, rural development and food security. This paper analyzes agricultural growth and investment options that can support the development of a comprehensive agricultural development strategy consistent with the principles and objectives of the CAADP, which include achieving six percent agricultural growth and allocating at least ten percent of budgetary resources to the sector.

Economic modeling results indicate that it is possible for Malawi to reach the CAADP target of six percent agricultural growth. However, achievement of these goals will require additional growth in most crops and agricultural sub-sectors, meaning that Malawi cannot rely solely on growth in maize or tobacco to reach this growth target. Broader-based agricultural growth, including growth in pulses and horticultural crops, will be important if this target is to be achieved. So, too, is meeting the Maputo declaration of spending at least ten percent of the government?s total budget on agriculture. In fact, even under a more optimistic and efficient spending scenario, the Government of Malawi must increase its spending on agriculture in real value terms by about 20 percent per year between 2006 and 2015, and account for at least 24 percent of its total expenditure by 2015 if the CAADP goals are to be met.

Although agriculture has strong linkages to the rest of the economy, with agricultural growth typically resulting in substantial overall growth in the economy and rising incomes in rural and urban areas, simply achieving the CAADP target of six percent will not be sufficient to halve poverty by 2015, i.e. achieving the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG1). To achieve this more ambitious target, agriculture and non-agriculture would need an average annual growth rate above seven percent. This growth requirement is substantial, as is the associated resource requirements, indicating that the MDG target may be beyond reach. However, achieving the CAADP target should remain a priority, as this goal has more reasonable growth and expenditure requirements, and will substantially reduce the number of people living below the poverty line by 2015 and significantly improve the well-being of both rural and urban households.

Zambia has experienced strong economic performance since 1999. However, agriculture has not performed as well as the rest of the economy, and although the incidence of poverty has declined, it still remains high. The Zambian government, within the framework of the Fifth National Development Plan (FNDP), is in the process of implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), which provides an integrated framework of development priorities aimed at restoring agricultural growth, rural development and food security. This paper analyzes the agricultural growth and investment options that can support the development of a comprehensive rural development component under Zambia?s FNDP, in alignment with the principles and objectives of the CAADP, which include the achievement of six percent agricultural growth and allocation of at least ten percent of budgetary resources to the sector.

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model results indicate that it is possible for Zambia to reach the CAADP target of six percent agricultural growth, but this will require additional growth in all crops and sub-sectors. Zambia cannot rely on only maize or higher-value export crops to achieve this growth target; broader-based agricultural growth, including increases in fisheries and livestock, will be important. So, too, is meeting the Maputo declaration of spending at least ten percent of the government?s total budget on agriculture. In order to meet the CAADP target, the Government of Zambia must increase its spending on agriculture in real value terms by about 17?27 percent per year between 2006 and 2015, and spend about 8?18 percent of its total expenditure on the sector by 2015.

Although agriculture has strong linkages to the rest of the economy and its growth will result in substantial overall growth in the economy and the household incomes of rural and urban populations, achieving the CAADP target of six percent agricultural growth will not be sufficient to meet the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG1) of halving poverty by 2015. To achieve this more ambitious target, both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors would need an average annual growth rate of around ten percent per year. These growth requirements are substantial, as are the associated resource requirements. Thus, while the MDG1 target appears to be beyond reach for Zambia, achieving the CAADP target should remain a priority, as its more reasonable growth and expenditure scenarios will still substantially reduce the number of poor people living below the poverty line by 2015, and significantly improve the well-being of both rural and urban households.